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Mission NOT accomplished

The phrase “mission accomplished” used to have some teeth. When applied to a military task, one with a clear purpose and a specific goal (or goals), one planned, executed, and finished by a military unit, this phrase brings a sense of pride for a job well done (and a sense of relief if the task was particularly difficult, dangerous, or drawn out). An overdue shower, a change of clothes, and a hot meal don’t compare to those two words.

Regrettably a certain former commander-in-chief of the U.S. military used this phrase to describe the end of major combat operations in Iraq in 2003, which was followed by an insurgency that dragged on for eight more years. That former CINC, none other than former president George W. Bush, subsequently admitted that this was an unfortunate choice of words, but it was too late—the damage was done to his credibility and the phrase’s integrity.

Needless to say, this blogger is not about to assert that any particular mission has been accomplished. No specific assignment, no clear purpose, no specific goal, but progress nonetheless. Progress in the labor market.

As tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the unemployment rate continues to fall. It peaked around 10 percent in Oct. 2009; it cracked the 6 percent barrier last month when it fell to 5.9 percent. What does this 5.9 percent refer to? Glad you asked. The Bureau of Labor Statistics actually tracks six groups of unemployed people, some of which overlap:

  • U-1: People unemployed 15 weeks or longer
  • U-2: Job losers and people who completed temporary assignments
  • U-3: Total unemployed (this is the number commonly reported in the media and cited in the previous paragraph)
  • U-4: Total unemployed plus discouraged workers (no longer seeking employment)
  • U-5: All of the above, plus people marginally attached to the labor force (not working and not looking for work, but have looked for work sometime in the last 12 months)
  • U-6: All of the above, plus people working part-time who would like a full-time job
Many refer to U-6 as the real unemployment rate, and that’s fair, so long as everyone understands that this includes all the unemployed and underemployed. U-6 peaked at 17.2 percent in April 2010 and has fallen more or less steadily ever since. As of Sept. 2014, it had shrunk almost a third to 11.8 percent.

U-6 is always higher than U-3. In the latest recession, the maximum spread was 7.3 points (Sept. 2010). Since 1995, the narrowest spread was 2.9 points (Nov. 1999). Because U-3 and U-6 have been falling at about the same rate, the spread has been falling slowly; it now stands at 5.9 percent.

Other trends are encouraging. Today the Federal Reserve Board of Governors reported that industrial production grew 1 percent in September. Note that, unlike most government data, this isn’t an annualized rate; it really grew 1 percent in one month. This is extremely unusual. In a record going back to 1986, the growth in industrial production has equaled or exceeded 1 percent just eight times. That’s eight times in the last 345 months, or 2.3 percent of the time. A very rare event.

As reported by the Institute for Supply Management, the PMI is at 56.6 percent. Although it recently dipped, it’s still in growth territory. Its New Orders Index, now at 60.0 percent, predicts continued growth for the near future. Of the 10 factors it tracks, eight show favorable trends.

Finally, the employment numbers in two crucial sectors, manufacturing and construction, continue to climb (slowly). Manufacturing hit bottom with 11.45 million workers early in 2010; this industry is now 12.15 million strong. Construction took a might fall from 7.7 million in 2007 in 5.4 million in 2011, but it is now 6.1 million.

Again, no specific accomplishments, but favorable trends all around. For more information on BLS data and alternative measures of unemployment, see its Table A-15.

About the Author
FMA Communications Inc.

Eric Lundin

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Elgin, IL 60123

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Eric Lundin worked on The Tube & Pipe Journal from 2000 to 2022.